"Growth dynamics and complexity of national economies in the global trade network."

"Growth dynamics and complexity of national economies in the global trade network."

The talk will report on recent work (*) exploring the quantitative nexus among economic growth of a country, diversity and specialization of of its productions, and evolution in time of its basket of exports.
Relying on panel data of 1238 exports from 223 countries during 21 years, for this exploration we set up a stochastic dynamic model and construct suitable economic complexity measures. Key statistical features pertaining to the distributions of resources in the various exports of each country, reveal essential for both purposes. Parameters entering the evolution model, combined with counterfactual analyses give insight into cooperative effects among different productions and prospects of growth of each economy. Complexity features emerging from the analysis of dynamics are usefully compared with GDPpc data and with an original measure of efficiency of economic systems. Using tools of information theory, this measure is made fully consistent with the divbersity and degree of specialization of the products. Comparisons of this measure with dynamic model  parameters allow clear distinctions, from multiple perspectives, among developed, emerging, underdeveloped, and risky economies.
*) G. Teza, M. Caraglio and A. L. Stella, working paper (submitted 2018).

Participante: Dr. Attilio Stella

Institución: Departamento de Física y Astronomía, Universidad de Padua en Italia

Fecha y hora: Este evento terminó el Miércoles, 25 de Julio de 2018